On March 13, 2025, as part of the ongoing tit-for-tat trade war between Europe and the U.S., President Trump threatened to impose a 200% tariff on alcohol imported from the EU. This is in response to the EU's decision to impose a 50% tariff on U.S. whiskey and other products starting April 1, which in turn was a response to the Trump administration's tariffs on European steel and aluminum.
-- The U.S. and Europe are mutually important markets for alcohol sales and as such are vulnerable to tariffs.
-- These tariff threats are happening against the backdrop of an already volatile and uncertain trade environment with tariffs looming within North America as well as from China.
-- If these tariffs come into effect for an extended period, they will likely have a considerable negative impact across the associated value chains on both continents.
"Against this backdrop, an unfortunate combination of these tariffs could create considerable near-term volatility and earnings pressures, particularly for smaller producers," said Moritz Steinbauer, Senior Vice President, Sector Lead, Corporate Ratings, Diversified Industries. "However, we believe any material adverse effects on the long-term credit risk profiles of most large and well-diversified global producers will be relatively manageable, especially if the duration or magnitude of any such tariffs is relatively limited."
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